SAMI STRATEGY DESCRIPTIONS

For

BOLD AND BOLD WITH CONSTRAINTS

 

(Draft -- June 22, 2000 -- under Policy Committee Review)

 

CONCEPTUAL DESCRIPTIONS

 

BOLD - State-of-the-art controls applied to all sources as soon as possible.  "Off the shelf" controls for 2010 and existing prototypes for 2040.

 

BOLD WITH CONSTRAINTS - State-of-the-art controls applied to all sources as soon as possible.  "Off the shelf" controls for 2010 and existing prototypes for 2040. (Distinct from "Bold" because logistic constraints and other practical considerations are introduced.)

 

 

CONTENTS

 

AREA SOURCES             -- NOx

                                    -- SO2

                                    -- PM10

                                    -- PM2.5

                                    -- Ammonia

                                    -- VOC

 

MOBILE             -- ON ROAD

                        -- NONROAD

 

STATIONARY         - INDUSTRIAL NOx

                                    -- INDUSTRIAL SOx

                                    -- ELECTRIC NOx and SOx

 

CLARIFICATION QUESTIONS FROM INVENTORY CONTRACTOR

 

OVERVIEW CHART (lacks the detail provided in the charts above)

                                   


 

 

AREA SOURCES -- BOLD AND BOLD WITH CONSTAINTS SUMMARY

 

 

AREA

 

 

EMISSION

CATEGORY

 

2010

BOLD

WITH

CONSTRAINTS

 

(% Reduction*)

 

 

2010

BOLD

 

 

 

(% Reduction*)

 

2040

BOLD

WITH

CONSTRAINTS

 

(% Reduction*)

 

 

2010

BOLD

 

 

 

(% Reduction*)

 

Cumulative

Share of

Area

Source

Contribution

(%)

 

 

COMMENTS

NOx

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Industrial

Natural Gas Combustion

 

 

No Change

 

20

 

 

 

 

24

 

 

Industrial

Coal Combustion

 

 

[50% to NSPS

Rate]

 

[All to NSPS Rate]

 

 

 

 

45

 

 

Misc. Burning

 

 

0

 

10

 

20

 

30

 

59

To biogas or nonburning use

Residential Nat Gas

 

10

 

20

 

30

 

50

 

72

Natural efficiency evolution

Commercial/ Institit.

Natural Gas

 

10

 

20

 

30

 

50

 

79

Natural efficiency evolution

 


 

AREA NOx Continued

2010 B/C

2010 Bold

2040 B/C

2040 BOLD

Cumulative %

 

 

Open Burning

 

50

 

90

 

90

 

90

 

84

 

 

 

Commercial/Instit.

Oil

 

15

 

25

 

35

 

55

 

87

Efficiency

Improvements

 

Residential Wood

 

10

 

20

 

30

 

50

 

91

Technology

Improvements

 

 

 

All below 90%

 

 

 

 

 

Apply only controls applied to other categories

 

* Percent reduction in grown baseline.


 

AREA SO2

2010 B/C

2010 Bold

2040 B/C

2040 BOLD

Cumulative %

 

 

Industrial Coal

50% NSPS

D(c)

100% NSPS D(c)

Half at NSPS

Half gas equivalent

No coal.

Gas equivalent

50

To gas equivalent

 

Commercial/ Institutional Oil

 

25

 

 

50

 

 

98

 

98

 

69

To gas equivalent

Residential Distillate Oil

 

25

 

 

50

 

 

98

 

98

 

79

To gas equivalent

Industrial Distillate Oil

50% NSPS

D(c)

100% NSPS D(c)

Half at NSPS

Half gas equivalent

No coal.

Gas equivalent

83

To gas equivalent

Commercial/ Institutional Coal

 

25

 

 

50

 

 

98

 

98

 

87

To gas equivalent

Other Industrial Fuel Combustion

50% NSPS

D(c)

100% NSPS D(c)

Half at NSPS

Half gas equivalent

No coal.

Gas equivalent

91

To gas equivalent

 

Residential Coal

 

25

 

 

50

 

 

98

 

98

 

94

To gas equivalent

All below 94%

 

 

 

 

 

Apply only controls applied to other categories

 


 

 

AREA PM10

 

 

2010 B/C

 

2010 Bold

 

2040 B/C

 

2040 BOLD

 

Cumulative %

 

Unpaved Road Dust

10

20

30

50

32

 

Fugitive Dust

10

20

30

50

52

 

 

Paved Road Dust

 

0

 

0

 

0

 

0

72

Street sweeping in special cases

Agricultural Crops

0

5

10

20

82

 

Agricultural **Livestock

10

20

30

50

89

 

 

Managed Burning

 

0

 

10

 

20

 

30

 

94

To biogas or nonburning use

 

 

All below 90%

 

 

 

 

 

Apply only controls applied to other categories

 

* Percent reduction in grown baseline.     ** Why so high (similar to agricultural crops)?

 

AREA PM2.5

2010 B/C

2010 Bold

2040 B/C

2040 BOLD

Cumulative %

 

 

Paved Road Dust

 

0

 

0

 

0

 

0

 

18

Street sweeping in special cases

Unpaved Road Dust

10

20

30

50

36

 

Fugitive Dust

10

20

30

50

51

 

 

Managed Burning

 

0

 

10

 

20

 

30

66

To biogas or nonburning use

 

Residential Wood

 

10

 

20

 

30

 

50

76

Technology

Improvements

 

Agricultural Crops

0

5

10

20

84

 

 

Open Burning

 

50

 

90

 

90

 

90

 

91

 

 

 

 

All below 90%

 

 

 

Apply only controls applied to other categories

 

 

 

 

AREA Ammonia

 

 

2010 B/C

 

2010 Bold

 

2040 B/C

 

2040 BOLD

 

Cumulative %

 

 

Livestock

 

 

30

 

40

 

50

 

60

 

89

Anaerobic Digestion

 

Fertilizers

 

10

 

20

 

30

 

50

 

97

Management Practices and non-ammonia fertilizers

 

 

All below 90%

 

 

 

 

 

Apply only controls applied to other categories

 

 

 

 

AREA VOC

 

 

2010 B/C

 

2010 Bold

 

2040 B/C

 

2040 BOLD

 

Cumulative %

 

All Chemical and Allied Products (>90%)

0

10

30

50

 

9

 

All Solvent Use (>90%)

 

0

10

30

50

 

61

 

All Storage and Transport (>90%)

0

10

30

50

75

 

All Burning

 

 

 

 

90

Use % Above

 

 

All below 90%

 

 

 

 

 

Apply only controls applied to other categories

 

 

 

 

 

 

MOBILE SOURCES - ON ROAD

 

·        LIGHT DUTY MOBILE ON-ROAD BOLD SCENARIO  (BOLD WITH CONSTRAINTS IN PARENS)

 

2010 -- All [50%] LEV with LEV defined as the lowest of EPA, California, or Tier II whichever is most stringent.  Fuel is not specified.

 

2040 -- All [50%] ZEV powered by fuel cells.  Refinery emissions are assumed to be constant since the expected increase in VMT is assumed to be matched by an increase in vehicle efficiency.

 

1990 to 2040 -- Assume a 25% [10%] cut in the rate of VMT growth.

 

·        2040 HEAVY DUTY MOBILE ON-ROAD BOLD SCENARIO [WITH CONSTRAINTS IN BRACKETS]

 

25% [10%] ZEV

25% [10%] of VMT to rail

80% [50%] meet HD diesel standard with 5ppm S Fuel

 

·        2010 HEAVY DUTY MOBILE ON-ROAD BOLD SCENARIO [WITH CONSTRAINTS IN BRACKETS]

 

100% [100%] use 50 ppm S diesel fuel

50% [10%] of vehicles meet 2007 HD vehicle standards in 2010


MOBILE SOURCES - NONROAD

 

·        NONROAD BOLD SCENARIO [WITH CONSTRANTS IN BRACKETS]

 

2010    100% [50%] 50 ppm S fuel

            25% [0%] 2007 vehicle standards

            100% [50%] airport service to fuel cells or ZEV

 

2040    100% 5ppm [50ppm] S fuel for all diesel applications

            100% [50%] 2007 vehicle standards

            No [no] ZEV

            100% [100%] airport service to fuel cells or ZEV

 

            Note: Increase rail emissions to match transfer of VMT from HD on-road (both years and bold plus bold with constraints)

 

 


STATIONARY SOURCES - INDUSTRIAL

 

An assumption related to the table presented below is that it addresses only on-site sources of steam and/or electricity at industrial sites.

 

 

 

2010 BOLD

 with Constraints

 

2010 BOLD

 

 

2040 BOLD

with Constraints

 

 

2040 BOLD

 

Stationary

Industrial

 

 

NOx

 

SIP Call Year Round

 

§         1995 Baseline grown by BEA factors

 

§         60% Reduction to Grown  uncontrolled Emissions from Coal-fired boilers

 

§         Applies to 250 MBtu/hr rated capacity and above

 

§         Regional Trading Program with EGUs **

 

 

** EGU = Electric Generating Unit

 

SIP Call year-round Extended:

 

§         1995 Baseline Grown by BEA Factors

 

§         Coal-fired boilers >250 MBtu/hr:  85% Reduction of Grown Uncontrolled Emissions

 

§         Coal-fired boilers between 100 & 250 MBtu/hr:  50% Reduction for Grown Uncontrolled Emissions

 

 

33-67- Composite NOx rate of 0.09 lb/MBtu year round for new/replacement capacity.

 

§         33%PC @ 0.15 lb/MBtu

§         67% Gas boilers @ 0.06 lb/MBtu.

 

60% year round reduction from grown uncontrolled emissions for “old” coal units larger than 250 MBtu/hr (assume all others retire at 75 yrs or same as 1.33% per year capacity replacement rate).

 

Assumes Regional Trading Program with EGUs.

 

 

* GTCC = gas turbine combined cycle

 

20-80 – Composite NOx rate of 0.044 lb/MBtu year-round for new/replacement capacity.

 

·        20% PC @ 0.10 lb/MBtu

·        80% Gas boilers or GTCC* @ 0.03 lb/MBtu

 

 85% year round reduction from grown uncontrolled emissions for “old” coal units larger than 250 MBtu/hr and

 

 50% year round reduction for “old” coal units between 100 & 250 MBtu/hr

(assume all others retire at 75 yrs or same as 1.33% per year capacity replacement rate).

 

Assumes Regional Trading Program with EGUs.

 

 

Stationary

Industrial

 

SOx

 

80% reduction from uncontrolled emissions for coal-fired boilers greater than 250 MBtu/hr rated capacity

 

§         addresses half the capacity of coal-fired boilers.

 

§         Regional Trading Program with EGUs.

 

Same as BOLD w/Constraints except 95% reduction from uncontrolled emissions.

 

Plus

 

50% reduction on coal-fired boilers between 100 & 250 MBtu/hr

 

33-67- Composite SOx rate of 0.033 lb/MBtu year round for new/replacement capacity.

 

§         33%PC @ 0.1 lb/MBtu (assumes 1.3% S coal & 95% control).

 

§         67% Gas boilers  @ 0.0 lb/MBtu.

 

80% year round reduction from grown uncontrolled emissions for “old” coal units larger than 250 MBtu/hr

 

(assume all others retire at 75 yrs or same as 1.33% per year capacity replacement rate).

 

Assumes Regional Trading Program with EGUs.

 

20-80 – Composite SOx rate of 0.020 lb/Mbtu year-round for new/replacement capacity.

 

·        20% PC @ 0.1 lb/MBtu (assumes 1.3% S coal & 95% control).

 

·        80% Gas boilers or GTCC @ 0.0 lb/MBtu

 

 95% year round reduction from grown uncontrolled emissions for “old” coal units larger than 250 MBtu/hr and

 

80% year round reduction for “old” coal units between 100 & 250 MBtu/hr

 

(assume all others retire at 75 yrs or same as 1.33% per year capacity replacement rate).

 

Assumes Regional Trading Program with EGUs.

 

 


 

STATIONARY SOURCES - ELECTRIC

 

 

 

2010

Bold w/

Constraints

2010

Bold

2040

Bold w/

Constraints

2040

Bold

 

Utility

 - NOx

 

0.15 lb/mmBTU

year-round

 

0.10 lb/mmBTU

year-round

 

20-40-40 composite NOx rate for new and

 

0.15 for old

year-round*

 

 

 

2 ppm NOx emissions or 0.03 lb/mmBTU

year-round for new and

 

0.10 lb/mmBTU for old, year-round

 

 

Utility

 

 - SOx

 

90% control for half of unscrubbed capacity,

year-round

 

 

95% control for all units as a regional average

year-round

 

20-40-40 composite SOx rate or 0.02-0.03 lb/mmBTU for new

 

and 90% reduction for old units, year-round

 

 

0-50-50 composite** for new units and

 

95% reduction for old units, year-round

 

 

* 20% pulverized coal at 0.10 lb/mmBTU and 40% combined cycle natural gas plus 40% gasified coal with a composite emission rate from sources of those types.  For the remaining "old" power plants that have not been retired an emissions rate of 0.15 lb/mmBTU will be used.

 

** 50% combined cycle natural gas and 50% gasified coal


CLARIFICATIONS

 

The following answers were provided by the SAMI Policy Committee in response to questions asked by E. H. Pechan and Associates:

 

On-road:

 

-10% reduction in rate of VMT growth: From when to when (e.g., 2000 to

2010?)

 Answer:  starting in 2000

 

-LEV and ZEV requirements--do the percentages apply to number of vehicles or

number of vehicle miles?

 Answer: VMT

 

-Does 50% ZEV mean that 50% of light duty vehicle and light duty trucks in

the 2040 fleet meet the ZEV standard, or does this mean that by 2040 50% of

new light duty vehicle and truck sales meet the ZEV standard? If the

former, do you care how the ZEVs are phased in as long as the target is met?

 Answer: By 2040 50% of vehicles meet the standard.  This change is to be phased in linearly from 2010 to 2040.

 

-for HD controls, which HD standards are you referring to? the 2004

standards or current stds? Does this apply to both gas and diesel HDs? by

10% HD stds, do you mean 10% reduction in HD stds or 10% of HD stds (i.e.,

90% reduction)? Do the standard reductions apply in 2010 or just 2040?

What should be first model year meeting these new standards?

 Answers:  2004, diesel, 10% of fleet, phased in linearly from 2010 to 2040

 

Non-road:

 

-Do all sulfur reductions refer to diesel fuel?

 Answer: yes

 

-same ZEV questions as with on-road

 Answer: same answers as on-road

 

-what does 50% of 2007 standard really mean--is this the phase-in percentage

or a reduction in the standard?

 Answer:  phase in

 

 

Stationary Industrial:

 

-do these controls apply only to industrial boilers, or are other categories

included?

 Answer:  at least boilers.  Are their other categories SAMI should be concerned about?

 

-Does this mean apply NSPS rates to all existing units? For what pollutants?

 Answer:  Yes, all pollutants and all units.

 

-what units do the NOx and SO2 reductions get applied to?

 Answer: Refer to industrial summary above.

 

Stationary Electric:

 

-are controls for coal boilers only?

 Answer:  Apply controls to all fuels and use the lower of "controlled" or "natural"

 

-do SO2 controls get applied to 50% of generation or emissions?

Answer: 50% of capacity (e.g. megawatts) and not electric generation or emissions

 

-In what order should SO2 controls be applied?

Answer: start with the highest capacity in megawatts and move toward the lowest.


APPENDIX A:      SAMI STRATEGIES OVERVIEW  -  (5-1-00)

 

 

SOURCE  SECTOR

 

 

"ON THE BOOKS"

 

"ON THE WAY"

 

"BOLD WITH CONSTRAINTS"

 

"BOLD"

 

 

SHORT

DESCRIPTION

 

 

CAA Controls as they existed when SAMI formed in the early 90's.

 

On the Books plus recent regualtions such as Tier II, and  NOx SIPs.

 

State-of-the-Art controls applied to all sources as soon as possible.  "Off the shelf" controls for 2010 and existing prototypes for 2040.

(Distinct from "Bold" because logistic constraints and other practical considerations are introduced.)

 

State-of-the-Art controls applied to all sources as soon as possible.  "Off the shelf" controls for 2010 and existing prototypes for 2040.

 

MOBILE  - ON-ROAD

 

 

Tier I,  I&M, Reform Gas and others

 

 

Tier II + low S fuel

 

2010 - 50%  LEV (light duty)

2040 - 50%  ZEV (light duty)

10% redx'n in rate of VMT growth

HD 50 ppm fuel + 10% HD stds

 

2010 - LEV (light duty)

2040 - ZEV (light duty)

25% redx'n in rate of VMT growth

HD 5 ppm fuel + half HD stds

 

 

 

MOBILE - NON-ROAD

 

 

Compression and Spark Ignition Controls and Marine Controls

 

Same as OTB

 

2010 -  50% 50 ppm S fuel

50% airport service ZEV

2040 - 50 ppm S fuel

50% 2007 standard

 

 

2010 -  100% 50 ppm S fuel

100% airport service ZEV

2040 - 5 ppm S fuel

100% 2007 standard

 

 

STATIONARY - INDUSTRIAL

 

 

RACT and MACT

 

NOx  SIP Call

7/10 Year MACT

 

60% NOx Reduction big units

80% SOx Reduction big units

33/67 Fuel mix for new units

 

 

85% NOx Reduction big units

50% NOx Reduction med units

95% SOx Reduction big umts

50% SOx Reduction med units

20/80 Fuel mix for new units

 

STATIONARY - ELECTRIC

 

Title IV SOx and NOx Controls plus RACT

 

 

NOx SIP Call

 

 

NOx = 0.15 lb/mmBTU

SOx = 90% for half of unscrubbed

Year-round (2010)

 

 

NOx = 0.10 lb/mmBTU

SOx = 95% for half of generation capacity

Year-round (2010)

AREA SOURCES

RACT and MACT

RACT and MACT

DONE

DONE