SAMI
STRATEGY DESCRIPTIONS
For
BOLD
AND BOLD WITH CONSTRAINTS
(Draft -- June 22, 2000 --
under Policy Committee Review)
CONCEPTUAL DESCRIPTIONS
BOLD
- State-of-the-art controls applied to all sources as soon as possible. "Off the shelf" controls for 2010
and existing prototypes for 2040.
BOLD
WITH CONSTRAINTS - State-of-the-art controls applied to all sources as soon as
possible. "Off the shelf"
controls for 2010 and existing prototypes for 2040. (Distinct from
"Bold" because logistic constraints and other practical
considerations are introduced.)
CONTENTS
AREA
SOURCES -- NOx
-- SO2
-- PM10
-- PM2.5
-- Ammonia
-- VOC
MOBILE
-- ON ROAD
--
NONROAD
STATIONARY
- INDUSTRIAL NOx
-- INDUSTRIAL SOx
-- ELECTRIC NOx and SOx
CLARIFICATION
QUESTIONS FROM INVENTORY CONTRACTOR
OVERVIEW
CHART (lacks the detail provided in the charts above)
AREA SOURCES -- BOLD AND
BOLD WITH CONSTAINTS SUMMARY
|
AREA EMISSION CATEGORY |
2010 BOLD WITH CONSTRAINTS (% Reduction*) |
2010 BOLD (% Reduction*) |
2040 BOLD WITH CONSTRAINTS (% Reduction*) |
2010 BOLD (% Reduction*) |
Cumulative Share of Area Source Contribution (%) |
COMMENTS |
|
NOx |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Industrial Natural Gas Combustion |
No Change |
20 |
|
|
24 |
|
|
Industrial Coal Combustion |
[50% to NSPS Rate] |
[All to NSPS Rate] |
|
|
45 |
|
|
Misc. Burning |
0 |
10 |
20 |
30 |
59 |
To biogas or nonburning
use |
|
Residential Nat Gas |
10 |
20 |
30 |
50 |
72 |
Natural efficiency
evolution |
|
Commercial/ Institit. Natural Gas |
10 |
20 |
30 |
50 |
79 |
Natural efficiency evolution |
|
AREA NOx Continued |
2010 B/C |
2010 Bold |
2040 B/C |
2040 BOLD |
Cumulative % |
|
|
Open Burning |
50 |
90 |
90 |
90 |
84 |
|
|
Commercial/Instit. Oil |
15 |
25 |
35 |
55 |
87 |
Efficiency Improvements |
|
Residential Wood |
10 |
20 |
30 |
50 |
91 |
Technology Improvements |
|
All below 90% |
|
|
|
|
|
Apply only controls
applied to other categories |
* Percent reduction in grown
baseline.
|
AREA SO2 |
2010 B/C |
2010 Bold |
2040 B/C |
2040 BOLD |
Cumulative % |
|
|
Industrial Coal |
50% NSPS D(c) |
100% NSPS D(c) |
Half at NSPS Half gas equivalent |
No coal. Gas equivalent |
50 |
To gas equivalent |
|
Commercial/ Institutional
Oil |
25 |
50 |
98 |
98 |
69 |
To gas equivalent |
|
Residential Distillate Oil
|
25 |
50 |
98 |
98 |
79 |
To gas equivalent |
|
Industrial Distillate Oil |
50% NSPS D(c) |
100% NSPS D(c) |
Half at NSPS Half gas equivalent |
No coal. Gas equivalent |
83 |
To gas equivalent |
|
Commercial/ Institutional
Coal |
25 |
50 |
98 |
98 |
87 |
To gas equivalent |
|
Other Industrial Fuel
Combustion |
50% NSPS D(c) |
100% NSPS D(c) |
Half at NSPS Half gas equivalent |
No coal. Gas equivalent |
91 |
To gas equivalent |
|
Residential Coal |
25 |
50 |
98 |
98 |
94 |
To gas equivalent |
|
All below 94% |
|
|
|
|
|
Apply only controls
applied to other categories |
|
AREA PM10 |
2010 B/C |
2010 Bold |
2040 B/C |
2040 BOLD |
Cumulative % |
|
|
Unpaved Road Dust |
10 |
20 |
30 |
50 |
32 |
|
|
Fugitive Dust |
10 |
20 |
30 |
50 |
52 |
|
|
Paved Road Dust |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
72 |
Street sweeping in special
cases |
|
Agricultural Crops |
0 |
5 |
10 |
20 |
82 |
|
|
Agricultural **Livestock |
10 |
20 |
30 |
50 |
89 |
|
|
Managed Burning |
0 |
10 |
20 |
30 |
94 |
To biogas or nonburning
use |
|
All below 90% |
|
|
|
|
|
Apply only controls
applied to other categories |
* Percent reduction in grown
baseline. ** Why so high (similar to
agricultural crops)?
|
AREA PM2.5 |
2010 B/C |
2010 Bold |
2040 B/C |
2040 BOLD |
Cumulative % |
|
|
Paved Road Dust |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
Street sweeping in special
cases |
|
Unpaved Road Dust |
10 |
20 |
30 |
50 |
36 |
|
|
Fugitive Dust |
10 |
20 |
30 |
50 |
51 |
|
|
Managed Burning |
0 |
10 |
20 |
30 |
66 |
To biogas or nonburning
use |
|
Residential Wood |
10 |
20 |
30 |
50 |
76 |
Technology Improvements |
|
Agricultural Crops |
0 |
5 |
10 |
20 |
84 |
|
|
Open Burning |
50 |
90 |
90 |
90 |
91 |
|
|
All
below 90% |
|
|
|
Apply only controls
applied to other categories |
||
|
AREA Ammonia |
2010 B/C |
2010 Bold |
2040 B/C |
2040 BOLD |
Cumulative % |
|
|
Livestock |
30 |
40 |
50 |
60 |
89 |
Anaerobic Digestion |
|
Fertilizers |
10 |
20 |
30 |
50 |
97 |
Management Practices and
non-ammonia fertilizers |
|
All below 90% |
|
|
|
|
|
Apply only controls
applied to other categories |
|
AREA VOC |
2010 B/C |
2010 Bold |
2040 B/C |
2040 BOLD |
Cumulative % |
|
|
All Chemical and Allied
Products (>90%) |
0 |
10 |
30 |
50 |
9 |
|
|
All Solvent Use (>90%) |
0 |
10 |
30 |
50 |
61 |
|
|
All Storage and Transport
(>90%) |
0 |
10 |
30 |
50 |
75 |
|
|
All Burning |
|
|
|
|
90 |
Use % Above |
|
All below 90% |
|
|
|
|
|
Apply only controls
applied to other categories |
MOBILE SOURCES - ON ROAD
·
LIGHT
DUTY MOBILE ON-ROAD BOLD SCENARIO (BOLD
WITH CONSTRAINTS IN PARENS)
2010
-- All [50%] LEV with LEV defined as the lowest of EPA, California, or Tier II
whichever is most stringent. Fuel is
not specified.
2040
-- All [50%] ZEV powered by fuel cells.
Refinery emissions are assumed to be constant since the expected
increase in VMT is assumed to be matched by an increase in vehicle efficiency.
1990
to 2040 -- Assume a 25% [10%] cut in the rate of VMT growth.
·
2040
HEAVY DUTY MOBILE ON-ROAD BOLD SCENARIO [WITH CONSTRAINTS IN BRACKETS]
25%
[10%] ZEV
25%
[10%] of VMT to rail
50%
[80%] meet HD diesel standard with 5ppm S Fuel
·
2010
HEAVY DUTY MOBILE ON-ROAD BOLD SCENARIO [WITH CONSTRAINTS IN BRACKETS]
100%
[100%] use 50 ppm S diesel fuel
50%
[10%] of vehicles meet 2007 HD vehicle standards in 2010
MOBILE SOURCES - NONROAD
·
NONROAD
BOLD SCENARIO [WITH CONSTRANTS IN BRACKETS]
2010
100% [50%] 50 ppm S fuel
25% [0%] 2007 vehicle standards
100% [50%] airport service to fuel
cells or ZEV
2040 100% 5ppm [50ppm] S fuel for all diesel
applications
100% [50%] 2007 vehicle standards
No [no] ZEV
100% [100%] airport service to fuel
cells or ZEV
Note: Increase rail emissions to
match transfer of VMT from HD on-road (both years and bold plus bold with
constraints)
STATIONARY SOURCES - INDUSTRIAL
An
assumption related to the table presented below is that it addresses only
on-site sources of steam and/or electricity at industrial sites.
|
|
2010 BOLD with Constraints |
2010 BOLD |
2040 BOLD with Constraints |
2040 BOLD |
|
Stationary Industrial NOx |
SIP Call Year Round §
1995 Baseline grown by BEA
factors §
60% Reduction to
Grown uncontrolled Emissions from
Coal-fired boilers §
Applies to 250 MBtu/hr
rated capacity and above §
Regional Trading Program
with EGUs ** ** EGU = Electric
Generating Unit |
SIP Call year-round
Extended: §
1995 Baseline Grown by BEA
Factors §
Coal-fired boilers >250
MBtu/hr: 85% Reduction of Grown
Uncontrolled Emissions §
Coal-fired boilers between
100 & 250 MBtu/hr: 50% Reduction
for Grown Uncontrolled Emissions |
33-67- Composite NOx rate
of 0.09 lb/MBtu year round for new/replacement capacity. §
33%PC @ 0.15 lb/MBtu §
67% Gas boilers @ 0.06
lb/MBtu. 60% year round reduction
from grown uncontrolled emissions for “old” coal units larger than 250
MBtu/hr (assume all others retire at 75 yrs or same as 1.33% per year
capacity replacement rate). Assumes Regional Trading
Program with EGUs. * GTCC = gas turbine
combined cycle |
20-80 – Composite NOx rate
of 0.044 lb/MBtu year-round for new/replacement capacity. ·
20% PC @ 0.10 lb/MBtu ·
80% Gas boilers or GTCC* @
0.03 lb/MBtu 85% year round reduction from grown uncontrolled emissions for
“old” coal units larger than 250 MBtu/hr and 50% year round reduction for “old” coal units between 100 &
250 MBtu/hr (assume all others retire
at 75 yrs or same as 1.33% per year capacity replacement rate). Assumes Regional Trading
Program with EGUs. |
|
Stationary Industrial SOx |
80% reduction from
uncontrolled emissions for coal-fired boilers greater than 250 MBtu/hr rated
capacity §
addresses half the
capacity of coal-fired boilers. §
Regional Trading Program
with EGUs. |
Same as BOLD w/Constraints
except 95% reduction from uncontrolled emissions. Plus 50% reduction on
coal-fired boilers between 100 & 250 MBtu/hr |
33-67- Composite SOx rate
of 0.033 lb/MBtu year round for new/replacement capacity. §
33%PC @ 0.1 lb/MBtu
(assumes 1.3% S coal & 95% control). §
67% Gas boilers @ 0.0 lb/MBtu. 80% year round reduction
from grown uncontrolled emissions for “old” coal units larger than 250
MBtu/hr (assume all others retire
at 75 yrs or same as 1.33% per year capacity replacement rate). Assumes Regional Trading
Program with EGUs. |
20-80 – Composite SOx rate
of 0.020 lb/Mbtu year-round for new/replacement capacity. ·
20% PC @ 0.1 lb/MBtu
(assumes 1.3% S coal & 95% control). ·
80% Gas boilers or GTCC @
0.0 lb/MBtu 95% year round reduction from grown uncontrolled emissions for
“old” coal units larger than 250 MBtu/hr and 80% year round reduction
for “old” coal units between 100 & 250 MBtu/hr (assume all others retire
at 75 yrs or same as 1.33% per year capacity replacement rate). Assumes Regional Trading
Program with EGUs. |
STATIONARY SOURCES - ELECTRIC
|
|
2010 Bold w/ Constraints |
2010 Bold |
2040 Bold w/ Constraints |
2040 Bold |
|
Utility - NOx |
0.15 lb/mmBTU year-round |
0.10 lb/mmBTU year-round |
20-40-40 composite NOx
rate for new and 0.15 for old year-round* |
2 ppm NOx emissions or
0.03 lb/mmBTU year-round for new and 0.10 lb/mmBTU for old,
year-round |
|
Utility - SOx |
90% control for half of
unscrubbed capacity, year-round |
95% control for all units
as a regional average year-round |
20-40-40 composite SOx
rate or 0.02-0.03 lb/mmBTU for new and 90% reduction for old
units, year-round |
0-50-50 composite** for
new units and 95% reduction for old
units, year-round |
*
20% pulverized coal at 0.10 lb/mmBTU and 40% combined cycle natural gas plus
40% gasified coal with a composite emission rate from sources of those
types. For the remaining
"old" power plants that have not been retired an emissions rate of
0.15 lb/mmBTU will be used.
**
50% combined cycle natural gas and 50% gasified coal
CLARIFICATIONS
The
following answers were provided by the SAMI Policy Committee in response to
questions asked by E. H. Pechan and Associates:
On-road:
-10%
reduction in rate of VMT growth: From when to when (e.g., 2000 to
2010?)
Answer: starting in 2000
-LEV
and ZEV requirements--do the percentages apply to number of vehicles or
number
of vehicle miles?
Answer:
VMT
-Does
50% ZEV mean that 50% of light duty vehicle and light duty trucks in
the
2040 fleet meet the ZEV standard, or does this mean that by 2040 50% of
new
light duty vehicle and truck sales meet the ZEV standard? If the
former,
do you care how the ZEVs are phased in as long as the target is met?
Answer:
By 2040 50% of vehicles meet the standard.
This change is to be phased in linearly from 2010 to 2040.
-for
HD controls, which HD standards are you referring to? the 2004
standards
or current stds? Does this apply to both gas and diesel HDs? by
10%
HD stds, do you mean 10% reduction in HD stds or 10% of HD stds (i.e.,
90%
reduction)? Do the standard reductions apply in 2010 or just 2040?
What
should be first model year meeting these new standards?
Answers: 2004, diesel, 10% of fleet, phased in
linearly from 2010 to 2040
Non-road:
-Do
all sulfur reductions refer to diesel fuel?
Answer:
yes
-same
ZEV questions as with on-road
Answer:
same answers as on-road
-what
does 50% of 2007 standard really mean--is this the phase-in percentage
or
a reduction in the standard?
Answer: phase in
Stationary Industrial:
-do
these controls apply only to industrial boilers, or are other categories
included?
Answer: at least boilers. Are their other categories SAMI should be concerned about?
-Does
this mean apply NSPS rates to all existing units? For what pollutants?
Answer: Yes, all pollutants and all units.
-what
units do the NOx and SO2 reductions get applied to?
Answer:
Refer to industrial summary above.
Stationary Electric:
-are
controls for coal boilers only?
Answer: Apply controls to all fuels and use the
lower of "controlled" or "natural"
-do
SO2 controls get applied to 50% of generation or emissions?
Answer: 50% of capacity (e.g.
megawatts) and not electric generation or emissions
-In
what order should SO2 controls be applied?
Answer: start with the highest
capacity in megawatts and move toward the lowest.
APPENDIX A: SAMI STRATEGIES
OVERVIEW -
(5-1-00)
|
SOURCE SECTOR |
"ON THE BOOKS" |
"ON THE WAY" |
"BOLD WITH
CONSTRAINTS" |
"BOLD" |
|
SHORT DESCRIPTION |
CAA Controls as they
existed when SAMI formed in the early 90's. |
On the Books plus recent
regualtions such as Tier II, and NOx
SIPs. |
State-of-the-Art controls
applied to all sources as soon as possible.
"Off the shelf" controls for 2010 and existing prototypes
for 2040. (Distinct from
"Bold" because logistic constraints and other practical
considerations are introduced.) |
State-of-the-Art controls
applied to all sources as soon as possible.
"Off the shelf" controls for 2010 and existing prototypes
for 2040. |
|
MOBILE - ON-ROAD |
Tier I, I&M, Reform Gas and others |
Tier II + low S fuel |
2010 - 50% LEV (light duty) 2040 - 50% ZEV (light duty) 10% redx'n in rate of VMT
growth HD 50 ppm fuel + 10% HD
stds |
2010 - LEV (light duty) 2040 - ZEV (light duty) 25% redx'n in rate of VMT
growth HD 5 ppm fuel + half HD
stds |
|
MOBILE - NON-ROAD |
Compression and Spark
Ignition Controls and Marine Controls |
Same as OTB |
2010 - 50% 50 ppm S fuel 50% airport service ZEV 2040 - 50 ppm S fuel 50% 2007 standard |
2010 - 100% 50 ppm S fuel 100% airport service ZEV 2040 - 5 ppm S fuel 100% 2007 standard |
|
STATIONARY - INDUSTRIAL |
RACT and MACT |
NOx SIP Call 7/10 Year MACT |
60% NOx Reduction big
units 80% SOx Reduction big
units Fuel mix for new units 2040 all units |
NSPS by 2010 New units to gas 2040 90% NOx and 95% S
Redxn |
|
STATIONARY - ELECTRIC |
Title IV SOx and NOx
Controls plus RACT |
NOx SIP Call |
NOx = 0.15 lb/mmBTU SOx = 90% for half of
unscrubbed Year-round (2010) |
NOx = 0.10 lb/mmBTU SOx = 95% for half of
generation capacity Year-round (2010) |
|
AREA SOURCES |
RACT and MACT |
RACT and MACT |
DONE |
DONE |